Even though Tokyo is the busiest city in Japan, it’s also the only Prefecture that actually increased in population in the last year, by a tiny 0.13%. Everywhere else, population is dropping quickly, and in some places, like Akita — almost 2% in one year. That’s devastating.
A Country Aging Out
Deaths reached an all-time high at just under 1.59 million, while births dropped to just 680,000 — the lowest number ever. If this continues, Japan will drop under 120 million population in 2026, and keep declining until it eventually plateaus out around 87 million by 2070. At this point, 4 out of 10 citizens will over 65.
So why the downfall? Young Japanese are not exactly flocking to get married or have families. Given poor employment prospects, high living expenses, stagnant wages, and an outdated corporate mindset which still sees pregnant women as a “nuisance”, the prospect of raising children can be hard to stomach.
The Government’s Response
Japan is not ignoring the crisis. In 2024, the government sunk $34 billion into various incentives: childcare subsidies, education programs, the works. Experts have claimed, however, the strategy is mostly aimed at married couples, not at the growing number of co-parents who are opting out of marriage entirely. In other words, it’s a band-aid, not a solution.
Meanwhile… Foreign Residents are Skyrocketing
In 2025, a total of 3.67 million foreigners are residing in Japan (an increase of 10.65% from 2024), the largest number since reporting began in 2013, with growth occurring in every prefecture for three consecutive years.
This is an increase from 2.66% last year. Tokyo alone has more than 721,000 foreigners, or 5.15% of the population. Osaka and Yokohama are not too far behind.
Demographics of New Residents
Compared to Japanese nationals, whose seniors comprise roughly 30% of the population, it is of no surprise that Japan has 2.3 million foreigners contributing to the workforce, an increase of 12.4% in just one year.
Moving on, experts estimate that Japan will require up to 7 million foreign workers by 2040 to sustain its economy and balance the declining domestic workforce.
So, What Can We Infer?
Though “overtourism” still gets a lot of play in the journalists’ world, Japan’s real balancing act goes deeper – less locals, more outsiders, and a country quickly reshaping itself. For a lot of communities, foreign residents are no longer just temporary employees; they are becoming essential members of the local community, the labour force, and Japan’s future.
