Airlines are not quickly going back to the Middle East. Several airlines are extending their flight suspensions, with Air France being one of the most obvious examples of a cautious approach.
Rather than resume routes as planned, Air France has chosen to keep several of its Middle East flights on hold until they feel more comfortable. Safety issues and restricted airspace continue to create multiple signs that flying is too higher-risk for the company; therefore they are choosing to exercise a long-term plan rather than a short-term one.
All flight operations between Paris and cities like Dubai and Riyadh will remain suspended until the end of March; flights into Tel Aviv and Beirut have been suspended longer, extending into early April.
Airspace closures and ongoing security risks continue to make normal flight operations very difficult.
Therefore, rather than waiting for things to change, Air France has decided to wait for more secure conditions.
When the suspensions were first announced, they were expected to end in mid-March. The expectation was for the airline to begin a slow resumption of flight operations during that time. However, as the conflict continued to escalate, airlines were forced to reassess their schedules once again because of the ongoing uncertainty.
In the airline industry, time is essential. If you don’t restart at exactly the right time, then you could either endanger your safety or miss out on revenue.
There is a trend amongst several airlines giving minimal service/information throughout their networks; here are some examples: Aegean Airlines has eliminated multiple routes connecting White Plains, New York with various cities throughout the Middle East; Air Baltic has cancelled all scheduled flights originating from Latvia to Israel and the UAE until the end of March; and, now, Air Canada is extending its flight cancellations from Tel Aviv all the way through May.
On top of that, Cathay Pacific has announced that it too is suspending its service from Hong Kong to Dubai and Riyadh until late May. From the U.S., Delta has cut its service between New York City and Tel Aviv; further, the airline has been delayed with its scheduled start date for service from Atlanta to Tel Aviv until August.
It is clear that this is more than just an airline isolated issue but part of a much larger global trend.
With fewer flights coming into the Middle East means a longer travel time, fewer seats available, and possibly higher fares. Travelling may require many passengers to re-route through other hub cities or delay their trip altogether.
Airlines will typically try to maintain scheduled flight operations because suspending services is very costly. The aircraft become grounded or idle (wasting costs), the crews get reassigned, and schedules can become disorganized. When multiple airlines choose to suspend service at the same time, then this usually indicates a major ongoing operational issue.
While some travellers may hope that normal route operating will resume quickly; the airlines are most obviously taking a wait-and-see position before they start to expand flight operations.
In the meantime, the airlines’ first priority will be maintaining a safe, stable, and reliable flight schedule. Therefore, and until the situation improves further, most Middle East flight schedules will continue to be restricted and very hard to predict.
