Japan is experiencing a surge in tourism, with everybody celebrating, but when someone asks, “So… What’s up with the Chinese tourist?” the officials respond with a simple: “No comment.” To me, the awkward silence says way more than a diplomatic comment.
The Surge Everyone Predicted
In October 2025, Japan reported 3.89 million foreign visitors, pushing the total for the year to date (January–October) over 35.5 million travelers. Unless something catastrophically ridiculous happens in December, Japan will see an unprecedented 40+ million year.
The tourism operators are already popping champagne. Literally. Or figuratively—hard to tell.
China Normally Packs—But Not Now
While Japan records millions of arrivals, the biggest contributor—China—has come to a standstill.
Chinese travelers in the first 10 months accounted for 8.2 million arrivals or around 20% of all foreign visitors.
But then some political tension entered the conversation.
After Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi remarked about a possible Taiwan contingency involving the Chinese military in an unambiguous way, China was not pacified by the comment. China formally advised its citizens to reconsider, or not travel to Japan at all. Cue canceled reservations from thousands of travelers.
Before discussing the implications, officials are already avoiding the questions posed to them.
Shigeki Murata, the head of Japan’s Tourism Agency, took the most conservative position possible when asked about the possible implications of all of this:
“I would refrain from offering any hasty commentary.”
Translation:
“Let’s pretend this will resolve itself.”
He then added that Japan will “continue to encourage tourism as it has promoted tourism,” which sounds no different than saying you would continue to run if there were a thunderstorm approaching from directly behind you.
Airlines, Travel Agents, and Full Refunds
In Beijing, a major state-owned travel company didn’t wait for any further clarity and simply cancelled tours to Japan altogether.
No visas.
No group tours.
No bespoke packages.
Nothing, removed from the website.
Refund?
Sure. Full refund.
No fees.
No fuss.
A private travel company in Beijing cancelled new bookings for Japan completely.
And then the avalanche of ticket cancellations began.
Li Hanming, an airline analyst, reported roughly 491,000 flight bookings to Japan were cancelled – that represents 32% of the total flight bookings from China to Japan.
Even more astonishing, in the two days following the travel warning by Beijing, it was reported that:
- 82.14% of China-to-Japan flights were canceled on Sunday; and
- 75.6% were canceled on Monday.
And the craziest part?
On Sunday, cancellations were 27 times more than new bookings.
Frankly, that represents a mass exodus from travel plans.
Li stated the situation rather succinctly:
People were not canceling because they had sushi aversion. They were canceling because they were afraid for their safety.
All of the drama comes back to one comment in Japan’s parliament from PM Takaichi on November 7, 2025, that Chinese military action against Taiwan could be perceived as a threat to Japan’s very survival based on Japan’s security laws (2015).
China perceived the statement as meddling in its internal affairs and requested an apology.
A few hours later, its government issued a travel advisory.
Airlines took immediate action, offering full refunds and free rebooking to all ticket holders to Japan.
And this is what transformed a geopolitical event into a tourism earthquake.
So where does this leave Japan?
Tourism is booming – agreed.
The numbers are unprecedented – agreed.
The largest group of visitors to Japan is now second-guessing trips, cancelling flights, and pausing travel to Japan.
And Japan’s official stance?
For now, it is exactly this:
smile, wave, and hope this blows over.
